10 Thoughts for Those Buying (or Selling) BP… [from The Big Picture]

Great guidelines for those thinking about buying BP. Worth reading. Source: The Big Picture

EIA Storage report – 5/20/10

* Gas Inventories show 76 Bcf injection vs. consensus of 75 Bcf injection

* Futures rise marginally to $4.125/MMBtu at 11.21am

* Heavy downward pressure on Crude futures with intra-day drop of -3.6%

* Markets dropping and having a bad day but relative robustness in NatGas market indicates a bottom for NG in the near term.

* UNG still in contango woes from what I can tell. I’d stay away.

AAPL: Earnings

Earnings will be “good”. Questions of importance:

• Is is enough? Expectations are sky high so it’s easy to fall [WSJ]
• Outlook – how will they guide? They have a new product coming into play (the iPad) from the next quarter onward so this will be part of the guidance game. AAPL usually low-balls guidance. Do it enough number of times and the others will factor it in (likely incorrectly) leading to a ‘disappointment’.
• iPad update – This will be a big question on the call. How’s it doing, supply issues update, YTD sales number, etc. 3G version expected April 30.
• iPhone 4 – for lack of a better term/number on the next iPhone. Folks will want to know more about the alleged leaking/loss/who-knows-what of the next iPhone and the hoopla behind it. More importantly, when is it due (expected June), new features as per lost model, etc.?
• iAds – news on this is of interest to me as I think this is  the next ‘stream’ of revenue for AAPL.

Overall I think they’ll do fine though the stock is down to $245 (-2 approx.)

Disclosure: The fund is hedged long AAPL

Twitter load

Here’s something I haven’t seen personally before (I’m not a regular Twitter site user).

Message on Twitter site earlier today

ETFC Jan 2010 Activity report summary

• U.S. brokerage accounts decreased by 2,392 (net)
• DARTs up 21% from Dec, 4% from last Dec
• U.S. net new brokerage assets were positive $0.6 billion
• Customers net buyers of approx $1.4 billion in securities in Jan

Comments

• No real worrying news. The decrease in net accounts is not all that big given that actual AUM increased for the same period.
• Deposits also decreased a little in the bank side. Company is continuing focus on brokerage biz and seemingly reducing focus on banking business (not sure why). Isn’t synergy one of the things they offer that would make a retail client choose them?
• The DART numbers from next month would be worth watching as the price drop should take effect for “infrequent” traders => we’ll know the price sensitivity of current customers and their ability to attract new ones.

Article on Yahoo here.

Apple iPad: quick poll!

All this hype about the Apple iPad and many opinions. So, I’m interested in getting your initial reactions. The fund is invested in Apple [AAPL] and I’m working on an analysis of the stock. It’s been yo-yoing these past few days despite the positive news … interesting.

Anyways, here is the poll. Please respond and thanks!!

ETFC – swinging for the fences

The $hrubfund has a decent sized position in E-Trade Financial [ETFC]. The firm is an online retail broker providing banking, trading and other related services.  It’s a well known firm with a good brand and famed for its “Talking Baby” commercials (new ones coming during the Super Bowl this year!). Many retail traders/investors have opinion on the stock. I’ve been following and have had positions in ETFC for over 2 years now and in this post, I’ll cover the stock and add some commentary.